China’s Record Exports Spark Global Trade Tensions
China’s exports surged by more than 36% in September, according to official data released on Wednesday. This puts the country on track for a record annual trade surplus, likely increasing pressure from major partners like the United States and the European Union to rebalance the relationship.
Surplus Hits Record Levels
China’s customs office reported exports rose 36.3% compared to September 2025, exceeding the 25.7% increase predicted by a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Imports also spiked 31% during the same period, but the world’s second-largest economy still recorded a trade surplus of $133.5 billion. This marks the largest monthly figure since January 2025.
The cumulative trade surplus through the end of last month reached $938.1 billion, positioning China to surpass the $1.2 trillion surplus recorded last year. With domestic demand weak—retail sales grew just 0.4% year-over-year in August—Beijing has relied on exports to meet its annual growth target of 4.5% to 5%.
Shipments to the US rose 39.6% in September, rebounding from a low base last year when trade collapsed after Beijing and Washington imposed punitive tariffs. Shipments to the EU increased 25.3%, while imports from the 27-nation bloc remained flat. This pushed China‘s trade surplus with the EU to new heights. EU officials have described the bloc’s deficit with China, exceeding 1 billion euros daily, as “unsustainable” and pledged to rebalance the trading relationship.
Talks last week between China and EU trade chiefs Maros Sefcovic and Wang Wentao concluded with an agreement to limit exports of Chinese hybrid vehicles to Europe. Analysts note this accounts for only a small share of bilateral trade.
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Data Discrepancies
Official statistics often face scrutiny. A Wall Street Journal report this week suggested China’s population may be 130 million less than government claims. The Journal’s top China correspondent, Lingling Wei, cited demographer Yi Fuxian of the University of Wisconsin-Madison, who argues China’s actual population is closer to 1.27 billion, not the official 1.4 billion.
Yi states that official statistics conflict with health and education records, partly due to local governments inflating birthrate numbers.
Rise of AI ‘Worms’
Small artificial intelligence models may soon behave like computer worms, spreading across internet-connected devices without human intervention, AI firm Anthropic warns. This development could introduce new cybersecurity threats as governments and companies adopt AI technology.
Anthropic researchers warned that an AI version of a computer worm could spread between machines on its own, no longer needing powerful data centers to operate. Instead, it could hop from device to device across networks of cheap, poorly secured consumer hardware such as smart TV boxes and kitchen appliances. The researchers based their calculations on Kimwolf, a botnet that infected more than two million devices at its peak, mostly off-brand Android TV boxes.
Varun Chandrasekaran, an assistant professor of electrical and computer engineering at the University of Illinois, said the research was unsurprising and matched similar recent findings, though he cautioned that Anthropic’s work had not been independently verified. He also noted that security on devices like thermostats or home cameras “has historically been very weak.” But when it came to AI, the biggest current threat was human bad actors using AI to sharpen their hacks, rather than AI systems themselves going rogue, he said. “A malicious human being is now supercharged with AI to perform bad things and we are seeing this happen at scale,” he added.
